8级大震的预测研究讨论

两个8级地震的预测在某种程度上被验证了。一个是 2001 年11月14 日昆仑山口西 8.1 级大震,另一个是 2003年9 月27日中蒙俄交界处的7.9 级地震(矩震级为 8级)。基于月球最北直下点的引潮力触发效应和8级大震的三性法分析,我们预测在2005～2008年间,西藏南部和附近地区可能再次发生 8级大震。     

气提式三重循环生物膜反应器处理制药废水中的甾体雌激素

为验证气提式三重循环生物膜反应器处理甾体雌激素的效能,建立了一套SPE/HPLC/MS/MS分析方法,对反应器进、出水中的甾体雌激素--甾酮(E1),17β-雌二醇(E2),雌三醇(E3)以及17α-乙炔基雌二醇(EE2)进行检测.该方法的加标回收率为88%～103%,精密度为4%～9%.该方法对E1,E2,E3和EE2的进水定量限(LOQ)分别为0.7,0.8,0.9和0.5 ng/L;对出水的定量限分别为2.0,1.0,2.0和 1.0 ng/L.CODCr和氨氮容积负荷最高为7.5和1.6 kg/(m3·d),出水依然能够保持稳定.进水pH稳定在9.0～10.5,而反应器的pH一直稳定在9.0以下,体系对pH变化造成的冲击比较适应.同时,反应器内形成了稳定的NO2--N积累,CODCr和氨氮的去除率分别达到了70%和73%.     

水中普萘洛尔的紫外光降解机制及其产物毒性

以高压汞灯为光源,研究了紫外光照条件下水中普萘洛尔(PRO)的光解行为、机制及安全性.PRO光解机制通过活性氧物种(ROS)猝灭实验来确定,光解产物安全性通过发光菌毒性实验来评价.结果表明,PRO的光解速率常数(k)随初始浓度的增加而下降,两者呈显著负相关关系(r2>0.95).随着溶液初始pH的升高,PRO的光解加快,pH 5~9的PRO溶液的k值为0.0953~0.267 min-1.ROS猝灭实验表明,PRO的紫外光解过程包括了激发三重态PRO(3PRO*)参与的直接光解,以及羟基自由基(·OH)和单线态氧(1O2)参与的自敏化光解,直接光解速率常数大于自敏化光解速率常数.采用FFA探针方法测定了不同实验条件下1O2的浓度,其总体变化规律与猝灭实验所得结论一致.发光菌毒性实验表明,PRO光解生成了比母体化合物毒性更强的中间产物.     

用三性法对巴楚伽师6.8级地震的跨越式预测

介绍了用三性法对2003年2月24日新疆巴楚伽师6．8级地震的早期跨越式预测，并讨论了某些相关问题。所谓三性法就是大震时序上的周期性、倍周期性和黄金分割性的排列。     

水中典型光敏剂引发金雀异黄酮三线态敏化光降解机理

金雀异黄酮(genistein,Gs)在水体中频繁检出,其环境行为备受关注。为深入探讨水中溶解性有机质(DOM)激发三线态敏化Gs间接光降解的机理,以3-甲氧基苯乙酮(3-MAP)、亚甲基蓝(MB)、2-萘乙酮(2-AN)和2-苯甲酮(BP)模拟DOM引发三线态光敏化反应,阐明Gs发生间接光降解活性与敏化剂性质、pH值的关系。通过光化学实验结合密度泛函理论计算发现,激发态能量高的BP或3-MAP对Gs的敏化效率低,二者虽可与Gs发生能量或电子转移敏化,但对λ290 nm的模拟太阳光吸收少,因此激发态产率低;激发态能量低的MB或2-AN对Gs的敏化效率高,且随pH升高而增强,因二者能吸收较多的模拟太阳光,激发态产率高。以MB为例,发现Gs分子形态几乎不能被光敏化降解(pH≤5); Gs由一价阴离子逐渐解离成二、三价阴离子,kin增大102倍(pH 6～12),说明Gs不同解离形态的敏化光降解活性具有显著差异。因Gs阴离子更易发生敏化光降解,因此带正电荷的MB分子比中性分子态的2-AN更易与Gs阴离子结合,表现出更高的敏化能力,相同pH (9或12)条件下,敏化光降解速率相差25～47倍。敏化剂三线态性质及pH值对Gs光敏化降解的影响机理,对于深入认识化学组成复杂的环境DOM的光化学活性具有重要意义。     

A generalized differential method to calculate lumped kinetic triplet of the nth order model for the global one-step heterogeneous reaction using TG data

Computing kinetic triplet is of importance for the process safety of combustion/gasification industries to establish the chemical reaction scheme and to assess the hazardous risk. Few approaches have been capable of calculating lumped kinetic triplet at one time efficiently, which might be attributed to the fact that the analytical solution for the nonlinear ordinary differential equation (NNODE) for the n^th order reaction model has not been found yet. This paper presents an analytical solution of NNODE to compute kinetic triplet. Results showed that the proposed method (mass fraction curve-fitting error ϕ = 1.49%–2.07%) is more efficient to compute kinetic triplet of the n^th order reaction model, comparing to genetic algorithm (GA) optimization (ϕ = 1.43%–1.81%), Coats-Redfern (ϕ = 2.36%–3.16%), peak-shape, and isoconversional methods. A compensation effect between lnA and E_a is observed due to heating rates. Effects of exported data quality and smooth processing on computation of kinetic triplet are discussed. It is the first time that an analytical solution of NNODE (n^th order model) for global one-step heterogeneous reaction is derived for computing kinetic triplet. This work may help to search for analytical solutions of power-law and Avrami-Erofeev models in the future to efficiently calculate kinetic triplet for accelerating and sigmoidal reaction systems.     

1999年9月21日台湾7.6级大震预报讨论

介绍了用三性法（周期性，公度性，黄金分割性）对１９９９年９月２１日台湾７．６级大震的三要素预报，并用构造分段公式，“静中动判据”补充作了讨论。鉴于短监预报的重要，我们还用样暴倍九律，即预滑－磁暴－天气韵律模式对９．２１大震的发震日期的预报作了讨论。     

Sampling Scale Effects in Random Fields and Implications for Environmental Monitoring

The concept of a sampling scale triplet of spacing, extent and support is used to define the spatial dimensions of a monitoring network or a field study. The spacing is the average distance between samples, the extent is the size of the domain sampled and the support is the averaging area of one sample. The aim of this paper is to examine what is the bias and the random error (uncertainty) introduced by the sampling scale triplet into estimates of the mean, the spatial variance and the integral scale of a variable in a landscape. The integral scale is a measure of the average distance over which a variable is correlated in space. A large number of two dimensional random fields are generated from which hypothetical samples, conforming to a certain sampling scale triplet, are drawn which in turn are used to estimate the sample mean, spatial variance and integral scale. The results indicate that the biases can be up to two orders of magnitude. The bias of the integral scale is positively related to the magnitude of any of the components of the scale triplet while the bias of the spatial variance is different for different components of the scale triplet. All sampling scale effects are relative to the underlying correlation length of the variable of interest which is closely related to the integral scale. The integral scale can hence be used for sampling design and data interpretation. Suggestions are given on how to adjust a monitoring network to the scales of the variables of interest and how to interpret sampling scale effects in environmental data.     

敏化剂特性及其耦合微波强化污泥破解研究

采用污泥活性炭（SAC）、TiO₂/SAC、Fe₃O₄/SAC作为敏化剂,结合微波处理技术对污泥进行了预处理,通过分析滤液中COD、DNA、氮、磷、有机物的含量及组分,探索微波+敏化剂的最佳处理条件.SAC负载TiO₂和Fe₃O₄后强化了其对电磁波的介电损耗和磁滞损耗,tan δ_ε分别增加了1.8和1.3倍,tan δ_μ分别增加到0.26和0.67.TiO₂/SAC投加量为0.25g/gSS时,样品滤液的COD浓度是1900mg/L,是原污泥和单独微波处理的4.52倍和1.86倍;Fe₃O₄/SAC投加量为0.35g/gSS时,样品滤液的COD浓度是2540mg/L,是原污泥和单独微波处理的6.05倍和2.45倍,Fe₃O₄/SAC强化污泥破壁效果更好.此时,样品滤液中TN、TP、蛋白质、多糖浓度分别为原污泥的7.7倍、16倍、7.49倍和71.69倍,微生物胞内和胞外聚合物中的物质大量释放,滤液中的溶解性有机物大大增加.微波+敏化剂的预处理方法有利于对污泥中氮、磷及有机物进行资源化利用与回收.